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The NFL Combine launched Monday afternoon with D-lineman and linebackers taking center stage the first night and the Underwear Olympics has begun.
Over the next two months, teams will pore over the prospects of this class, from the expected superstars (Marvin Harrison Jr.), to the surprise risers (Darius Robinson), to the probably overlooked (Jadon Janke), all to find the best players that they can for their team.
As always, I don't try to mock trades and I'm not trying to "guess" what teams will do, I'm trying to match the team and what they do/need with the best available player.
With that, the Chicago Bears are on the clock. . .
Chicago Bears
2023 record (7-10) from 2-15 Panthers
Team Needs - QB, WR, EDGE, C, S, CB
2023 Top Selection - Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
After trading down in the first round of last year's draft (with the Panthers and Eagles), the Bears find themselves with the first overall selection again and can restart the process of team building again. . . If they want to. USC QB Caleb Williams is available but I'm not the fan of his that most seem to be. A trade feels imminent for the Bears, but if it's for the top pick or incumbent QB Justin Fields remains to be seen.
My pick - Marvin Harrison Jr. - WR - Ohio State. Harrison Jr. feels like the closest player to a sure thing in this draft and while I don't think you need to take him at #1, trades just aren't part of my schtick.
Washington Commanders
2023 record (4-13)
Top Needs - QB, EDGE, OT, LB, CB, S, TE
2023 Top Selection - Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State
A season of Sam Howell at the helm showed the Commanders enough (or not) that QB is very high on their list. In this instance, Washington is thrilled that both Caleb Williams and Drake Maye are on the board here, they could conceivably trade down and still get a QB they like, and they should trade down, this team has a lot of holes.
My pick - Jayden Daniels - QB - Louisiana State. Everything that people like about Williams (except his impossibly elite arm talent) is present in Daniels and while Williams has had the more even performance in his career, Daniels is, to me, a better leader and less of a head-case.
New England Patriots
2023 record (4-13)
Top Needs - QB, WR, OT, CB, EDGE, TE
2023 Top Selection - Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
It's a new day in Foxborough. Billy B is gone, Mac Jones was not the answer, and the Pats are drafting inside the Top 5 for the first time since I was in high school (1994 for those who are curious). New HC Jerod Mayo has a chance to reset this team for the next ten years. . . if they make the right decision.
My pick - Malik Nabers - WR - Louisiana State. I know, the Patriots are probably taking a QB here assuming they don't trade up. The problem is that their skill positions have been neglected by the Billy B drafting strategy for too long and are a collection of underperforming cast-offs. Nabers injects a dynamic playmaker into the offense giving whoever is under center at least one solid weapon.
Arizona Cardinals
2023 record (4-13)
Top Needs - CB, WR, DT, OT, G, EDGE
2023 Top Selection - Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
With Kyler Murray returning midway through the season from a torn ALC and performing so-so after his first three games back (combined 6TD-1INT in first three games Vs. 4TD-4INT in last five games), there should be, if there aren't already, conversations as to whether or not Arizona should move on from him.
My pick - Caleb Williams - QB - Southern Cal. I'm not any bigger fan of Williams at this spot than I was at number one, however, I feel that this spot is the best landing spot inside the Top 5 (maybe the Top 20) for him for this reason - expectations for him will be lower here than anywhere else and in a worst-case scenario, he ends up as Kyler 2.0.
Los Angeles Chargers
2023 record (5-12)
Top Needs - CB, OT, C, DT, TE, WR, LB
2023 Top Selection - Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
If the draft in April unfolds like this one, I would think that the Chargers would be franticly working the phones trying to get the best deal they could if Drake Maye is available. Since the Chargers are set under center, the only position that makes sense for them to stay put and select is. . .
My pick - Joe Alt - OT - Notre Dame. Alt is ideal for placing opposite 2021 draftee Rashawn Slater to keep Justin Herbert upright and functioning for the next ten years. There was some smoke a few weeks ago about new HC Jim Harbaugh wanting Georgia TE Brock Bowers at this spot, but. . .
New York Giants
2023 record - (6-11)
Top Needs - WR, OT, G, CB, QB, RB, EDGE
2023 Top Selection - Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
If Drake Maye is available here I think "Danny Dimes" is designated as "Dumpster Danny" toot suite as the Giants run the card up to the Commish. If he's not, WR Nabers, WR Romeo Odunze, or OTs Alt or Olu Fashanu could be the selection.
My pick - Olu Fashanu - OT - Penn State. With 2022 draftee Evan Neal looking more and more like a candidate for a move to guard, Fashanu would be a great pick-up to solidify the G-men's O-line. If New York can remember that you win in the trenches, they make the smart pick.
Tennessee Titans
2023 record - (6-11)
Top Needs - OT, WR, RB, CB, DT, S
2023 Top Selection - Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern
The Titans need help on both their O-line and in the WR corps with Andre Dillard playing poorly and Nicholas Petite-Frere being unable to unseat him or journeyman Chris Hubbard. As far as the receivers go, DeAndre Hopkins is nearing the end of the trail, and Treylon Burks looking mediocre at best. Unfortunately, the top players at those positions are gone and the next best feels like a stretch at the seventh slot.
My pick - Brock Bowers - TE - Georgia. Bowers has plenty of room to grow as a receiver, but, even where he is now, he's a nightmare matchup for defenses. His blocking needs work, but you're not drafting Bowers to block, you're drafting him to be a weapon.
Atlanta Falcons
2023 record - (7-10)
Top Needs - QB, WR, EDGE, CB, DT
2023 Top Selection - Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
No team in the NFL was more up or down last season than Atlanta, a team that won or lost at least two games in a row six times. Every time they'd lose you'd hear the announcers talk about how this team is "just a QB away from competing". They'll look for a veteran QB but if they can't swing that. . .
My pick - Drake Maye - QB - North Carolina. If we get to the draft and the dirty birds haven't secured a vet, and I think this pick (or a later one) may head somewhere to make a deal work, Maye is the new triggerman for the Falcons.
Chicago Bears
2023 record - (7-10)
With Marvin Harrison Jr secured, the Bears will turn their attention to bettering their defense. Barring some corner or safety turning in the most impressive combine ever that means an EDGE rusher to pair with Montez Sweat who they snagged at the deadline last fall. There are also rumors that they'll pursue Chase Young in free agency and reunite him with Sweat.
My pick - Jared Verse - DE - Florida State. I'm taking Verse with this pick over Laiatu Latu for one reason only, I want to see what the NFL medical exam shows regarding Latu's neck, which he injured in preseason 2020 and sidelined him for two years before being cleared after transferring to UCLA.
New York Jets
2023 record - (7-10)
Top Needs - OT, WR, S, DT, QB
2023 Top Selection - Will McDonald, DE, Iowa State
The Jets are rebuilding their offensive line this offseason (not that that was a secret) and it's already begun with the release of Laken Tomlinson early last week. Unless the J-E-T-S can get this mess of a line fixed, the rest of the team, which is at or near championship caliber, is doomed from the start.
My pick - JC Latham - OT - Alabama. It doesn't matter if the Jets sign a veteran OL (or two) in free agency, they need to build depth, and drafting another lineman needs to happen. Latham has the size and natural athleticism you want out of a tackle and is a high-IQ player besides.
Minnesota Vikings
2023 record - (7-10)
Top Needs - DT, EDGE, RB, WR, CB, QB
2023 Top Selection - Jordan Addison, WR, Southern Cal
Until the Kirk Cousins situation is settled, that will be the biggest "action item" on the Vikes' plate this offseason, personally, I think they'll make a token effort to keep him, but this roster is no longer championship material. They will kick the QB can to the second or third round and hope the guy they like will be available (Penix? McCarthy? Nix?).
My pick - Laiatu Latu - EDGE - UCLA. The most polished pass rusher in this class, bar none. Latu fills a need for Minnesota and should plug in and be an 8-10 sack per year guy for the next decade allowing them to fill in around him.
Denver Broncos
2023 record - (8-9)
Top Needs - EDGE, DT, QB, CB, WR, TE
2023 Top Selection - Marvin Mims, WR, Oklahoma
QB is listed as a need for Denver only because they are likely to trade Russell Wilson before the draft, in doing so they open a big hole and one they are unlikely to be able to fill in the first round (probably, it always seems like there's a QB that makes a jump in the rankings, J.J. McCarthy is getting the most noise right now).
My Pick - Chop Robinson - EDGE - Penn State. I'm giving Robinson the edge (no pun intended) over Dallas Turner simply because I feel he recognizes the run a touch better. While Robinson needs to learn to disengage from linemen on run plays more effectively, I love his first step and effort.
Las Vegas Raiders
2023 record - (8-9)
Top Needs - OT, QB, DT, RB, CB, LB
2023 Top Selection - Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech
Since it looks like Jimmy Garappolo is Leaving Las Vegas (Thank you, I'll be here all week, try the veal!) and the Raiders don't feel like Aidan O'Connell is the answer, we have yet another team that needs a QB but there's no one on the board worth the selection.
My pick - Amarius Mims - OT - Georgia. Mims' best attributes are au naturel - size, strength, athleticism - that's all him. What he needs is more experience as he's only started 21 games and much of that was against lesser competition.
New Orleans Saints
2023 record - (9-8)
Top Needs - OT, G, DT, EDGE, QB, WR
2023 Top Selection - Bryan Bresee - DT - Clemson
Given that the Saints' eight losses only produced two that were by more than a single score (OK, a score and a 2pt conversion), you might think that they're a lot closer to the playoffs than they are, except they're in the NFC South, so they ARE closer to the playoffs. That may change this offseason with Atlanta making moves and Tampa the reigning champion.
My pick - Taliese Fuaga - OT - Oregon State. I hesitate to make this selection because Fuaga's scouting report- "run game dominance", "heavy hands" and on the minus side "over aggressiveness"- sounds like 2022 draft pick Trevor Penning's. Penning hasn't exactly been a bright spot but while they might have similar reports, that doesn't make them the same person. Fuaga also possesses some positional flexibility that would let him kick inside to guard if required.
Indianapolis Colts
2023 record - (9-8)
Top Needs - WR, CB, DT, S, EDGE
2023 Top Selection - Anthony Richardson - QB - Florida
Indy may have gone 9-7 with Gardner Minshew under center, but don't get it twisted, the future of the Colts lies with Anthony Richardson. Shut down for season-ending shoulder surgery after an AC joint sprain suffered Oct 8, Richardson will almost certainly begin camp as QB1. Questions still exist as to what will happen with Michael Pittman Jr. who is a pending free agent and that will affect what the Colts do with this pick.
My pick - Rome Odunze - WR - Washington. I feel that Indy will come to an agreement with Pittman Jr., or at least he'll be tagged and they'll continue to work toward one. With that said, upgrading the receiver room will need to happen for Richardson to maximize his potential. I thought about the Colts taking their choice of corners but decided Odunze would be a better fit.
Seattle Seahawks
2023 record - (9-8)
Top Needs - G, C, LB, DT, CB, EDGE
2023 Top Selection - Devin Witherspoon - CB - Illinois
After absolutely nailing both first-round picks last year (Seattle also selected Jaxon Smith-Njigba at #20) and doing quite well with the rest of their draft, they have a new regime in town. After fourteen seasons, Pete Carroll is out as head coach, and in as an advisor to the team. How will this affect the team's draft strategy? Will it affect the team's draft strategy? I guess we'll find out.
My pick - Troy Fautanu - OL - Washington. I debated if the Seahawks would take either Byron Murphy or Johnny Newton at DT, but Fautanu offers a chance to fill their top need as well as offering tackle flexibility similar to what Alijah Vera-Tucker offers the Jets.
Jacksonville Jaguars
2023 record - (9-8)
Top Needs - DT, WR, G, C, EDGE, CB
2023 Top Selection - Anton Harrison - OT - Oklahoma
Midway through the 2023 season the Jags looked poised to repeat as AFC South Champs and return to the playoffs in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 1998 and 1999. Instead, they lost five of their last six games, giving the division to Houston. With decisions to be made on WR Calvin Ridley and sack leader (17.5) OLB Josh Allen to be made, this is a critical off-season for the Jags' future.
My pick - Johnny Newton - DL - Illinois. I went back and forth with Newton and Byron Murphy but landed on Newton because I like his ability to hold tough at the point of attack just a smidge better than Murphy. At least one ESPN commenter thinks Murphy could end up the star of the combine though.
Cincinnati Bengals
2023 record - (9-8)
Top Needs - DT, OT, WR, TE, CB, RB
2023 Top Selection - Myles Murphy - EDGE - Clemson
While it's a little early to call last year's top pick Myles Murphy a bust, the Bengals have to be a bit concerned about him posting only twenty tackles last year. Currently residing at third on the depth chart you have to wonder if EDGE might be the right way to go, or you would if. . .
My pick - Byron Murphy - DT - Texas. Wasn't still on the board. Like I said above, Murphy and Newton are separated by the barest margins right now, and while that might change after the Combine workouts, that's where we stand for now.
Los Angeles Rams
2023 record - (10-7)
Top Needs - CB, EDGE, OT, TE, LB, S
2023 Top Selection - Steve Avila - OG - TCU
The cost of trading so much draft capital in recent years looked as if it were rearing its head for a consecutive season as the Rams trudged to a pitiful 3-6 record before the bye week. Instead of a repeat of last season when the Rams finished the year dropping 6 of their last 8 games, they turned their season around and managed 7 wins in the last 8 weeks. Good drafting, especially fifth-round WR Puka Nacua was a big reason for the Rams getting back to the playoffs.
My pick - Terrion Arnold - CB - Alabama. In a bit of luck (at least in this mock) the Rams' biggest need is still untouched and they have their pick of the litter. Arnold is who I take based on his IQ and athleticism. He's also solid in the run game and has the ball skills to flip the field on occasion.
Pittsburgh Steelers
2023 record - (10-7)
Top Needs - CB, OT, C, QB, S, WR
2023 Top Selection - Broderick Jones - OT - Georgia
Somehow, someway the Steelers managed to find their way into the playoffs on the performances of three starting QBs, all of whom started three or more games during the regular season. Hiring former Atlanta HC Arthur Smith as their new OC should give things a boost and he'll likely be stumping for O-line help. They'll also likely be trading for or drafting a QB in the first two days as well.
My pick - Tyler Guyton - OT - Oklahoma. CB is just as likely the pick, but I think that if you want the Steel City's offense to get better, you'll need to give the QB (whoever that ends up as) protection and the RBs holes to run through. Guyton gives me Phil Loadholt vibes with his explosiveness and heavy hands.
Miami Dolphins
2023 record - (11-6)
Top Needs - C, G, EDGE, S, WR, DT
2023 Top Selection - Cam Smith - CB - South Carolina
It feels odd that a team that finished with the top offense and passer, as well as a Top-10 defense, had to back into the playoffs, but that's just what the 'Phins managed to do last season. Of course, you're not helping your cause when you go two and three down the stretch losing a heartbreaker to the Titans (28-27), a blowout to the Ravens (56-19), and giving up a come-from-behind win to your Division rival (losing 21-14 to Buffalo) in the final week.
My pick - Dallas Turner - EDGE - Alabama. You can never have too many pass rushers and with both Bradley Chubb and Jaelen Phillips recovering from season-ending injuries (ACL tear and Achilles' tear respectively), adding someone in the running for best EDGE in this draft can't be a bad thing. Duke OL Graham Barton is someone else to keep an eye on but they may be able to trade back and still get Barton.
Philadephia Eagles
2023 record - (11-6)
Top Needs - CB, S, G, WR, RB, LB
2023 Top Selection - Jalen Carter - DT - Georgia
After being the NFL's best team over the first twelve weeks, the Eagles fell off a cliff losing five of their last six and going from a stranglehold on a first-round bye to having to travel (and lose) to Tampa Bay in the Wild Card round. What followed wasn't quite a complete house cleaning, but the Iggles will have new offensive and defensive coordinators for 2024. In addition (my speculation) HC Nick Sirianni held onto his job only because he was willing to move on from his coordinators.
My pick - Quinyon Mitchell - CB - Toledo. It's pretty simple. The Eagles starting cornerbacks are both on the wrong side of 30 with Darius Slay being 33. In addition, James Bradbury (30) had an atrocious year last season and will likely be cut before free agency. Mitchell gives them an NFL-ready starter who is technically sound and loves playing man coverage giving the aggressive Philly D a chance to overwhelm the opposing offense.
Houston Texans from 11-6 Cleveland
2023 record - (11-6)
Top Needs - CB, RB, DT, S, EDGE, IOL
2023 Top Selection - C.J. Stroud - QB - Ohio State
With OROY C. J. Stroud (and DROY Will Anderson for good measure), the Texans made hay with their 2023 draft day deal fleecing the Cardinals who got the Texans' 2024 first-rounder (#27) as well as 2023's #12, 33 selections, and a third-round pick as well. With QB set for Houston, they can look forward to creating depth with their picks going forward.
My pick - Ennis Rakestraw - CB - Missouri. Detractors will immediately point to Rakestraw's lack of ball production (one INT in four years) as proof that selecting him this high is a mistake. True, but Rakestraw is also a long, twitchy corner with great instincts and a high football IQ who rarely gets beaten at any level. He'll be a plug-and-play corner who will pair very well with Derek Stingley Jr in the Texans' secondary.
Dallas Cowboys
2023 record - (12-5)
Top Needs - OT, LB, CB, RB, DT, S, C
2023 Top Selection - Mazi Smith - DT - Michigan
Another year, another disappointing end to the Cowboys' season. After a bit of a see-saw first half of the season, the Cowboys turned it on after the bye going 8-3 to take the division from Philadelphia. They then followed it up with an absolute flop of a home playoff loss to Green Bay allowing the Pack to become the first #7 seed to win a playoff game.
My pick - Kool-Aid McKinstry - CB - Alabama. With none of the top tackles left and no LBs valued at this spot, we move on to corner to make this selection. While I do think McKinstry has more holes in his game than the CBs I've already selected, he's still a smooth cover corner in man-to-man and more than willing to help out against the run. With all that said, this feels like a prime spot for Dallas to trade down and pick up another selection or two.
Green Bay Packers
2023 record - (9-8)
Top Needs - S, RB, OT, CB, G
2023 Top Selection - Lukas Van Ness - EDGE - Iowa
Year one of Jordan Love taking over for Aaron Rodgers turned out to be a rousing success capped off with a Wild Card round win over the Cowboys followed by a narrow loss to the 49ers in the next round. With the QB question seemingly answered, the Pack can look to fill in weak spots and add depth around the youngest roster in the NFL.
My pick - Kingsley Suamataia - OT - Brigham Young. This is another spot I feel might be a candidate to trade down. As it is, adding depth along the offensive line is the play, especially with the future surrounding LT David Bakhtiari, who underwent surgery on his left knee for the fourth time in three years this past October, feeling very uncertain.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2023 record - (9-8)
Top Needs - C, EDGE, G, S, RB, WR
2023 Top Selection - Calijah Kancey - DT - Pitt
With a season spearheaded by QB Baker Mayfield finding his groove again after bouncing around a few different teams last season and leading the Bucs back to the playoffs in what many felt would be a down year as they looked to find their new QB after Tom Brady's retirement. Regardless this team will have to be careful as they have money to spend, but hard decisions to be made with Mayfield, WR Mike Evans, and ILB Devin White (among others) still to be signed.
My pick - Darius Robinson - EDGE - Missouri. Robinson is a great example of going to the Senior Bowl, showing out, and, consequently, getting a huge bump. Mostly regarded as a third-round pick after the season, Robinson's showing in Mobile immediately bumped him into the bottom of the first round following the game. He'll offer flexibility too as he can line up inside on pass-rush downs.
Arizona Cardinals from 10-7 Houston
With Caleb Williams (at least in this mock) already on board and getting a chance to add to his arsenal with Houston's pick from the Will Anderson trade, the Cards will have to decide between adding a corner, a receiver, or offensive line help.
My pick - Troy Franklin - WR - Oregon. A true take-the-top-off burner, Franklin is also surprisingly refined with his route running and ability to recognize soft spots in zone coverage. While he's not the type of receiver who is going to come down with a lot of contested catches, he will be an absolute problem if used properly.
Buffalo Bills
2023 record - (11-6)
Top Needs - WR, EDGE, S, DT, CB
2023 Top Selection - Dalton Kinkaid - TE - Utah
For the third time in the last four seasons, the Bills playoff hopes ended at the hands of the Kansas City Chiefs. By now everyone in the Bills organization has to be wondering what they need to do to get back to the Super Bowl.
My pick - Xavier Legette - WR - South Carolina. This might be the most hand-in-glove match of this mock. With Josh Allen's penchant for chucking up 50/50 balls, why not give him a receiver who specializes in contested catches? Big (6'3') and sturdy (227 lbs), Legette is almost a prototype NFL boundary receiver. You'll also be able to get him involved in the run game a la Deebo Samuel with jet sweeps and the like, interesting because Samuel played for South Carolina as well.
Detroit Lions
2023 record - (12-5)
Top Needs - CB, EDGE, DT, G, WR
2023 Top Selection - Jahmyr Gibbs - RB - Alabama
In a season where the Lions were expected to make the playoffs and contend for the Division title, I don't imagine that anyone but the most fevered Detroit fan thought that they would find themselves one-half of football away from making the team's first Super Bowl. They'll be expected to contend for a spot next season as they currently sit at +1200 to win the 2025 Super Bowl behind only San Fran in the NFC.
My pick - Bralen Trice - EDGE - Washington. I advocated for the Lions to find a bookend for Aidan Hutchinson last season and now EDGE is a top need. Enter Trice, and we'll see how he rates coming out of the combine but with his motor, I can see HC Dan Campbell drooling to take him at this spot. He's not just a high-effort/low-skill player though, he's active and not shy about throwing two or three moves at a lineman to get to the QB.
Baltimore Ravens
2023 record - (13-4)
Top Needs - RB, WR, DT, CB, EDGE
2023 Top Selection - Zay Flowers - WR - Boston College
You have to think that the Ravens will be active in talking to FA backs, but with just a touch over $16M available in cap space and some free agents I'm sure they'd like to keep (ILB Patrick Queen, CB Rock Ya-Sin, and OBJ) I'm not sure they'll be able to land a Top 5 guy so that'll be a on the Day 2 "To-do" list.
My pick - Xavier Worthy - WR - Texas. Despite HC Jim Harbaugh insisting that WR Rashod Bateman will be on the Ravens next fall I believe he'll be cut in the coming weeks, probably just before free agency. That means Baltimore will need to add a receiver and why not add Worthy? He just ran the fastest 40yd dash ever at the Combine (Conspiracy theory! The NFL adjusted the time from 4.22 to 4.21 to generate a story from this weekend) and while he's not a contested catch master, pairing him with a technician, like Zay Flowers, should work well.
San Francisco 49ers
2023 record - (12-5)
Top Needs - OT, EDGE, DT, CB
2023 Top Selection - Ji'Ayir Brown - S - Penn State
It's gotta be a bitter pill for San Fran to swallow losing to the Chiefs for the second time in five years, especially after holding a lead for most of the game. Regardless you need to have a short memory with things like that and move forward, not dwell on the past.
My pick - Graham Barton - OL - Duke. I believe that the 49ers will trade down from this spot to try to regain a little of the draft capital they expended to obtain the pick that became Trey Lance (since traded). Barton offers interior line flexibility and can eventually move into a starter role. Texas TE Ja'Tavion Sanders might be an option here as well.
Kansas City Chiefs
2023 record - (11-6)
Top Needs - WR, OT, LB, DT, CB
2023 Top Selection - Felix Anudike-Uzomah - EDGE - Kansas State
With a third Lombardi Trophy secured, the Chiefs can officially call themselves a dynasty, yay! Enough celebrating, back to work, just like every year you'll have holes to plug and tough choices to make. It won't be any different this year with DT Chris Jones a pending UFA and only $9.6M available in cap space (Jones made $19.5M in 2023).
My pick - Ja'Tavion Sanders - TE - Texas. When a star player is starting to get asked about the possibility of retirement, it's probably time to think about his replacement. Kelce still has two years left on a deal that will see him age 37 at its end, may as well give him two years to mentor a rookie even better is that Sanders is almost a carbon copy of Kelce (6'4", 245 lbs Vs 6'5", 250 lbs) with great athleticism and the ability to make the tough catch in traffic.
I've attached the players' profiles to their NFL.com Combine profiles so you can see how each player performed over the weekend. I'm sure we'll see plenty of movement from this mock to the next so I'm sure that the 2.0 Draft will be quite different, it always is.